It seems the population boom in Halifax lasted a bit longer than first appeared. Several months ago I wrote a commentary questioning the judgment of planners who, as discussed here, were floating expansive growth scenarios, one of which projected nearly a three-fold increase in the city’s population by 2050.
That projection – a population of 1,468,900 a quarter-century from now – was the most bullish of four different scenarios. But based on data from Statistics Canada published in early 2025, even the most modest of the planners’ four scenarios – a population of 730,862 by 2050 – did not look like a sure thing.
That downbeat StatsCan data showed population growth of only 11,600 between July 1, 2023 and June 30, 2024, a large decline from the previous two years when growth averaged about 17,000 annually.
The slower growth was primarily due to a sharp drop in the two categories that had contributed most to the post-pandemic population explosion: people moving to Halifax from other Canadian provinces and the rise in non-permanent residents – mostly international students and individuals with temporary work permits.
However, Statistics Canada revised those estimates earlier this year and published those revisions last week, along with estimates to July 1, 2025. The new data show that contrary to last year’s estimates, HRM continued to grow at an unprecedented pace in 2023-24. A decline in the rate of growth – a sharp drop of 62 percent- did not occur until the most recent population year ending June 30, 2025.
The table below shows the components of population growth for the Halifax Economic Region. Overall the population grew by only 7,835 in 2024-25, down from 20,408 in the previous year. Most of that growth was the result of permanent immigration as interprovincial migration added less than 1,000 and the number of non-permanent residents in HRM dropped by 775.
Components of population growth Halifax Region 2021-2025
| 2021-22 | 2022-23 | 2023-24 | 2024-25 | |
| Births less Deaths | 424 | 115 | 243 | 179 |
| Net immigration | 10,555 | 9,009 | 9,801 | 7,414 |
| Interprov. migration | 5,202 | 2191 | 5,153 | 980 |
| Intraprov. migration | -291 | -411 | 96 | 37 |
| Net non-permanent | -148 | 5,727 | 5,115 | -775 |
| Total Increase | 15,742 | 16,631 | 20,408 | 7,835 |
| Total population | 472,241 | 488,872 | 509,280 | 517,115 |
Source: Statistics Canada Table 17-10-0151-01
Reaching 730,862 by 2050 – the planners’ low immigration, economic downturn scenario – means adding about 213,000 people over the next 25 years, an average of about 8,500 per year. That’s more than the growth rate last year, and so far it doesn’t appear that 2025-26 will see a resumption of the growth rates experienced from 2022 to 2024.
As reported last month by Statistics Canada the population of Nova Scotia as a whole fell by nearly 1,400 between July 1 and September 30 of 2025, and according to its real-time population clock was down by another 1,128 between the first of October and today, January 22.
The main cause of dwindling population numbers is the federally-mandated reduction in the number of non-permanent resident visas. Halifax, which along with Cape Breton, owes much of its recent growth to the past surge in non-permanent residents is particularly vulnerable to the cutbacks.
And gains from net interprovincial migration – down 80 percent last year – may not return to levels experienced in recent years given the region’s reputation for high rents (sixth highest in the country according to Canada Mortgage and Housing) and traffic congestion (third worst in Canada, according to TomTom, a Dutch “geolocation company”).
But time – and another possible revision by StatsCan – will tell. Meanwhile, the cooling-off does not seem to have affected the developers, whose cranes continue to adorn the Halifax skyline, part of a housing boom that saw nearly 14,000 units under construction last month. Perhaps like the guy in Field of Dreams they believe that “if we build it, they will come.”
-30-
