Although it was not featured in yesterday’s campaign launch it’s clear the Houston Conservatives still see their virtue-signalling opposition to the federal carbon tax as a vote-getter. For example, over the weekend they issued news releases introducing a cluster of new candidates to run in seats the PCs don’t currently hold. Each of those candidates ended their pitch with a variation of this message: “The Houston PCs are also providing tax relief, while at the same time fighting against the (blank) carbon tax.” In districts held by the Liberals the blank is filled with “Liberal.” In Dartmouth South and Dartmouth North, NDP seats, it’s “the Liberal-NDP carbon tax.”
There has been some media questioning of whether it’s fair for the Premier to attempt to saddle provincial parties with policies supported (or not, in the case of the NDP) by their federal counterparts. However, the media have so far either embraced or left unchallenged Houston’s dubious claims about an alleged $400 million annual impact of the carbon tax on Nova Scotians. That number was recently reported in the Chronicle-Herald, prompting me to ask government officials to explain its origin. I offered the results of my investigation to the Herald in the following op-ed.
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It seems that Premier Tim Houston is keen to make opposition to federal carbon pricing a central theme of the impending Nova Scotia election. It also appears that this is a popular position, with many potential voters already having made up their minds that that carbon pricing is adding to their cost of living. However, the fact that carbon pricing seems to be a political loser doesn’t mean that journalists and commentators should not fact check exaggerations of its negative impact on household budgets.
In the Saturday, Oct. 19 edition Bill Black quotes a press release from Premier Houston claiming that the federal carbon tax “costs Nova Scotians nearly $400 million per year.” That would amount to about $1,200 per household. Further investigation has revealed that the $400 million is an estimate by the Provincial government of the amount households and businesses in Nova Scotia paid related to both the carbon tax and the clean fuel regulations from July 2023 to June 2024. However, the estimate does not take into account the quarterly carbon rebates that Nova Scotian households have been receiving since July, 2023.
According to the Parliamentary Budget Office (PBO), those rebates averaged $608 per household. Assuming 435,000 households in Nova Scotia, rebates total $265 million in 2023-24, offsetting a big chunk of the $400 million impact claimed by Houston. Because the $400 million figure includes both businesses and households, as well as the clean fuel regulations, you can’t directly compare the province’s estimates with those reported by the PBO. But we can take a stab at it.
The impact of only the carbon tax on households alone was estimated by the PBO in 2023 at $431 per household, about a third of what the Premier claims and Bill Black reports. That cost figure includes both the direct and indirect cost of carbon pricing in 2023-24 – the fiscal impact – as well as estimates of the economic impact through loss in employment and investment income. When just the fiscal impact was taken into account, rebates meant that Nova Scotians were better off by an average of $29 per household across all income groups in 2023-4, with the poorest 40 percent of us ahead by an average of $315.
For the current year PBO has re-calculated, removing industrial carbon pricing from the equation which raises the positive fiscal impact to an average of $156 this year, an average benefit that continues to rise even as the carbon tax moves toward the planned $170 per tonne level in 2030-31.
What with the difference between fiscal costs and economic costs, or fuel charge versus industrial pricing, the numbers are hard to follow, and subject to cherry-picking by someone seeking political advantage or opposed to putting any price on carbon pollution. However, as fuel prices level off following the post-pandemic surge and the quarterly rebates become a regular part of household incomes more people may come to realize they are being gaslighted by some politicians and media commentators.
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As of today, Oct. 28, at 8:30 a.m I have yet to hear back from the Herald
You might have pointed out that the federal Liberals wrecked any hope of national support for the tax by expressly exempting home-heating fuel with a clear view of retaining seats in Nova Scotia.
I did do a piece on the home heating carve out at the time, basically agreeing with you point of view. I’m not as optimistic as you that any possibility of national support existed prior to that. The conservative premiers were dead set against carbon pricing and would use any excuse to justify their opposition. The carve out provided one, so did inflation and the cost of living. The carve out, it should be noted, is for just three years. The Liberals might have had a better chance of saving the program if they had paused the annual increase for a year or two in 2022 when inflation started taking off….a symbolic gesture to be sure since carbon pricing had negligible impact on inflation.
Nice one, Richard, and somebody has to keep calling them on these endless lies about the carbon tax, but it seems those of us who do, like yourself , ae just pissing into a strong wind. Not that that’s a reason to stop.
Thanks. Will keep pissing. One wonders whether politicians who casually lie about or misrepresent carbon pricing can be trusted to be truthful about anything.