So far so good. As of now, Sunday afternoon, July 21, the rumoured snap election in Nova Scotia is not happening. It could still be called any day, but some recent intel from an unusual source makes me think that’s increasingly unlikely.
The source is something called the Rage Index, a calculator I’ve tended to avoid. Do we really want to further legitimize anger as a political response by measuring it?
However, as the provincial premiers gathered in Halifax this week to re-enact the ritual annual jeremiad against Ottawa, one headline from our daily newsfeed caught my eye – “Majority of Canadians angry towards federal and provincial governments.” Given that so much political discourse is about the anger felt about the Trudeau Liberals, the headline over the latest Rage Index came across as a man bites dog story, worthy of further inquiry. Subsequent probing also turned up some relevant insight on the political mood in Nova Scotia. We’ll return to that after some background on the Rage index.
The Index is the creation of Pollara Strategic Insights, with some involvement from the Toronto Star. It was launched in 2022 to measure, according to the company’s website “the mood of Canadians regarding their governments, the economy, and current events.”
In order to capture the mood, an online survey of a varying-sized random sample asks whether participants are angry, annoyed or moderately angry, neutral, pleased, or very happy, about six topics. Responses are tallied up to get the Rage Index: i.e. the percentage of those taking part who are either very angry or moderately so. The topics participants are invited to be riled up about include the economy, changes going on in the county and things in the news, as well as governments, provincial and federal.
When the initial Index was compiled in July 2022, claiming an accuracy of plus or minus 1.7 percent, 19 times out of 20, the Anger Index – covering all six topics – was at 49 per cent, with 14 percent very angry and 35 percent saying they were annoyed or moderately angry. The Index remained around 50 percent during the first year of tracking, but moved higher about a year ago. The most recent report puts the Index at 53 percent, including 18 percent very angry. That’s down from a record 58 percent – with 21 percent very angry – in April. Maybe people are cooling off a bit.
Anger at governments
Anger at governments has followed a similar pattern as the overall Index. Anger at the federal government rose from the initial 48 percent to a high of 60 percent in April before dropping to 56 percent in the latest report. Anger toward provincial governments went from 46 in the first report to 56 percent in April, dropping to 52 percent Pollara’s latest July report.
That July report, based on a sample size of 3,500 adults, including 323 in Nova Scotia, is the first one to break out data by province in the Atlantic region, thus providing some relevant insight into the mood of Nova Scotians and other Atlantic Canadians as elections loom in two of the provinces. (Responses from P.E.I were not reported separately).
Two years ago, the initial Index reported that for Atlantic Canada as a whole, anger at the federal government registered at 47 percent, with 16 percent very angry. Only 43 percent were angry at provincial governments. Anger with both levels of government has grown significantly since then, with provincial governments in Atlantic Canada faring worse than the feds.
In New Brunswick, more people are angry or annoyed with the PC government of Blaine Higgs than they are in with the Trudeau government – 61 percent irritated at Higgs versus 57 percent mad at Trudeau. In Nova Scotia, the federal government remains the top scapegoat, with the same 57 percent as in New Brunswick, but the provincial government is closing in at 55 percent.
Nova Scotia mood
The margin of error for provincial breakdowns isn’t stated, but with a sample size of just 323 it would be greater than the 1.7 percent claimed for the survey as a whole. In any case, it’s safe to say anger towards both senior levels of government is roughly equal in Atlantic Canada. And for Nova Scotia, the Anger Index numbers are less important than what participants say they are angry about – mainly health care.
“As their main source of anger, Nova Scotians blame their provincial government for a deteriorating health care system. Many specifically describe this as a “broken promise”, saying they voted for Premier Houston to fix the health care system.”
The Pollara report noted that the Houston government is also being blamed for doing too little about the cost of living and the housing shortage. It also found that anger about the carbon tax is subsiding across Atlantic Canada, dropping from 46 percent last September to 35 percent in the latest survey.
A few weeks ago, as speculation about an early election call was ramping up, the Houston PCs seemed poised to run on a platform touting their “game-changing investments in health care” and a promise to keep campaigning against “the Trudeau carbon tax.”
If Pollara’s findings are anything to go by, the health care “game” is not changing fast enough for Nova Scotians, and loathing the carbon tax is losing some political potency. And if the PC brains-trust is picking up similar vibes, I think I’m OK taking a few weeks vacation, free from any need to keep an eye on politics in Nova Scotia.
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