There were many numbers in the news in Nova Scotia this past week – population counts, budget forecasts and the inflation rate among them. I have little to add on those stories. The drop in population was a predictable result of federal policy changes from two years ago. The projected deficit was up only slightly from September\u2019s forecast, and the Consumer Price Index actually fell. But there were other numbers concerning doctors, nurses and natural gas that caught my attention, and are worth further examination. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
One set of numbers, regarding health care professionals, was actually in the aforementioned December forecast update from Nova Scotia Finance. That document is full of enlightening data, compiled by the diligent, fact-oriented public servants who strive to serve regardless of the party in power. That wasn\u2019t what stood out, however. The discordant note was on page one, featuring a set of eye-popping claims about the recruitment of health care professionals. To wit:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
It looks like someone in the Houston administration may be flirting with Trump math, on display again this week when the U.S. dictator wannabe boasted in a prime time TV address about performing a mathematical impossibility – cutting drug prices by 300, 500,700 or some such percent. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
No need to fact check Trump – Jimmy Kimmel and the other late night talk shows hosts are doing a good job of that, pointing out that reducing drug prices by more than 100 percent would mean the pharmacist giving money to customers along with the drugs.But it is important to turn a skeptical eye to those doctor and nurse numbers in the budget update, with the help of an independent source – the Canadian Institute for Health Information (CIHI). <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Before delving into the CIHI data, some caveats. Those numbers in the budget update don\u2019t provide a basis of comparison – are the new doctor numbers up 80 percent because only five came to the province the month before last and nine came last month? Or is the number of nurse practitioners up 390 percent because they went from 75 many years ago to around 370 today? Who knows? The numbers may be technically true, but essentially meaningless.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The other caution is that the CIHI numbers go only to 2024 – there may have been a stampede of doctors and nurses into Nova Scotia this year that will make those numbers true – and pigs may fly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
According to CIHI<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Presumably the claims in the forecast document are presented to convince Nova Scotians that all of the money the Houston government is spending on health care – and overspending this year is expected to exceed $400-million- has led to that amazing and much-desired increase in the number of health care professionals. And data from CIHI does show there has been an increase in doctors and nurses since the Conservatives came to power, but nowhere near the numbers rolled out this week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n But during that same three year-period of growth in doctors and nurses, the population of the province was also increasing – by eight percent. The result, according to CIHI, is a reduction in the number of physicians per\/100,000 population, from 274 in 2021 to 268 in 2024. The larger population also means that the increase per 100,000 was only 4.12 percent for RNs and a 42.02 percent increase for nurse practitioners – impressive growth but a long way from 390 percent. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Also of note is the fact that in April of 2025 Nova Scotia Health claimed a net gain of 187 doctors in fiscal year 2024-25. So it\u2019s possible the downward trend in physicians per\/100,000 population will be reversed when CIHI data for 2025 is released, likely next fall.It would be preferable if we could get reliable data from the province in the meantime, but based on the claims in the budget document, that seems unlikely. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Hyping natural gas<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n The natural gas numbers, which are not quite as far-fetched, came to us from Paris, France, where Premier Houston and a sizeable entourage attended the International Economic Forum of the Americas. The heft of the delegation – eight plus the Premier – was a numerical eye-opener as was a figure Houston tossed out while participating in a panel on \u201cdiverse energy futures.\u201d <\/p>\n\n\n\n In addition to trumpeting the potential of offshore wind and tidal power Houston declared that Nova Scotia has \u201cincredible amounts of natural gas onshore and offshore.\u201d He did not specify the \u201cincredible amounts\u201d of offshore natural gas – although recent estimates announced by the province put \u201cknown reserves\u201d at a modest 3.2 trillion cubic feet (tcf). But he did put a number on the onshore: \u201cWe have probably 32 trillion cubic feet of natural gas underfoot,\u201d he told his Paris audience.<\/p>\n\n\n\n That 32 trillion cubic feet rang a bell. It likely comes from the 2017 Onshore Petroleum Atlas,<\/em> a publication by the province which estimated there was 32 tcf (actually 31.87 tcf) of \u201cpotential\u201d shale gas, mostly in the Windsor area. Of that potential, the Atlas estimated \u201crecoverable potential,\u201d through fracking, of 4.39 tcf. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Rhetoric about \u201cincredible amounts\u201d aside, Nova Scotia is well down the pecking order for natural gas potential in Atlantic Canada. New Brunswick has 78 tcf of \u201ctechnically recoverable\u201d onshore natural gas, most of it handy to an existing operation near Sussex. And according to a 2023 estimate, Newfoundland and Labrador has four times Nova Scotia\u2019s offshore gas potential, a fact that did not prevent the Newfoundland government’s latest call for bids from coming up empty. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n