The Trudeau Liberals are a lucky bunch. Calling an unnecessary election during a pandemic that was gaining in intensity could have turned out very badly. Now that the numbers are in, the last five weeks may one day be described by chroniclers of this political moment as \u201cdisaster averted.\u201d The Liberals came back with a minority government and the pandemic remained under control in most of the country.<\/p>\n
As reported here<\/strong> when the election was called on August 15, active cases totaled 17,025, up 65 percent from the previous week. Had cases continued to grow at that rate for five weeks, Canada would have been looking at over 200,000 active cases by election day.<\/p>\n Fortunately for everyone, the rate of increase levelled off at mid-campaign, leaving only 45,819 active cases on Sept. 20. And the increase in new cases was highest in Alberta and Saskatchewan, where the widely reported mishandling of the pandemic by conservative governments gave the Liberal leader guilt-by-association darts to throw at his main opponent.<\/p>\n All told, there were 129,941 new cases reported between August 15 and September 20. Forty two per cent of those cases were in Alberta and Saskatchewan, provinces making up only 15 percent of the country\u2019s population. Canada reported 733 deaths from COVID-19 over the six weeks of the campaign – with Alberta and Saskatchewan accounting for 37 per cent.<\/p>\n The alarming numbers in those provinces were given visual expression through the daily news reports of over-burdened hospitals and stressed-out health care workers in the two Prairie Provinces. On September 22, Alberta and Saskatchewan accounted for 55 per cent of COVID hospitalizations in the country, up from 47 per cent two weeks earlier. Add British Columbia and 70 percent of COVID-19 hospitalizations were in the three westernmost provinces.<\/p>\n Table 1: Hospitalization by province, Sept. 22<\/strong><\/p>\n Source: COVID-19 Tracker Canada<\/strong><\/p>\n .<\/p>\n International Comparisons<\/strong><\/p>\n Even though the country\u2019s ruling party was preoccupied with the election campaign, Canada continued to compare favourably with fellow members of the G7 club. The 129,941 new cases and 733 deaths reported over the course of the election campaign were far below rates reported by the U.S., the U.K and France where the fourth wave is hitting much harder. Only Italy had a case rate per million lower than Canada\u2019s 3,414, while Germany and Japan were the only G7 members with lower deaths per million population.<\/p>\n Table 2: Cases and deaths per million Aug. 15-Sept. 20 G7 countries\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n Source: Worldometer<\/strong><\/p>\n Now that Trump has been replaced by Biden we tend to pay less attention to COVID case numbers coming out of the U.S. But the contrast between Canada and the U.S. and U.K. is stark, especially in light of the head start those two countries had on vaccines. Before freedom of choice became paramount, it will be recalled that for the first few months of this year the O\u2019Toole Conservatives tried for political advantage by fanning the flames of vaccine<\/strong> nationalism<\/strong><\/a>, accusing the Liberals of bungling vaccine acquisition. Perhaps the Conservatives should have been more careful about what they wished for.<\/p>\n\n\n
\n <\/td>\n In hospital<\/strong><\/td>\n In ICU<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n Canada<\/td>\n 2,279<\/td>\n 739<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n Alberta<\/td>\n \u00a0\u00a0 996<\/td>\n 222<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n Saskatchewan<\/td>\n \u00a0\u00a0 265<\/td>\n 54<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n B.C.<\/td>\n \u00a0\u00a0 332<\/td>\n 155<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n Ontario<\/td>\n \u00a0\u00a0 299<\/td>\n 187<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n Quebec<\/td>\n \u00a0\u00a0 280<\/td>\n 91<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n New Brunswick<\/td>\n \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 24<\/td>\n 15<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n Nova Scotia[i]<\/a><\/td>\n \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 11<\/td>\n \u00a0\u00a0 1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n \n\n
\n <\/td>\n Cases\/million<\/strong><\/td>\n Deaths\/million<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n U.S.<\/td>\n 16,311<\/td>\n 157.3<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n U.K.<\/td>\n 17,567<\/td>\n \u00a0\u00a0 63.0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n France<\/td>\n 7,428<\/td>\n \u00a0\u00a0 51.0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n Japan<\/td>\n 4,363<\/td>\n \u00a0\u00a0 14.3<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n Germany<\/td>\n 3,915<\/td>\n \u00a0\u00a0 15.0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n Canada<\/td>\n 3,414<\/td>\n \u00a0\u00a0 19.3<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n Italy<\/td>\n 3,276<\/td>\n \u00a0\u00a0 31.5<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n