It\u2019s not every day that decision-makers can observe the wisdom of their choices in real time. But that\u2019s what Nova Scotia health officials (and by extension the outgoing provincial government) can do by looking northwest to New Brunswick.<\/p>\n
Back in July, Nova Scotia and New Brunswick were following the same cautious COVID-19 public health guidelines, to stay in effect until 75 per cent of the population is fully vaccinated. But on July 23, New Brunswick changed course, announcing that the province would \u201cgo Green\u201d on July 30, well short of that vaccination target. Under the Green phase of its pandemic recovery plan, all restrictions were lifted – no more masking, gathering limits or interprovincial border controls.<\/p>\n
The Higgs government made the change despite acknowledging at the time that only 62.7 per cent of New Brunswickers 12 and older – and just around 55 per cent of the total population – had received two doses. Meantime, Nova Scotia has stayed the course, with the most recent estimate being that restrictions will not be eased until mid-September.<\/p>\n
In the nearly four weeks since New Brunswick lifted restrictions, the province has been acting out a cautionary tale. It has more than triple the number of cases reported by Nova Scotia, and when population is taken into account, it\u2019s four times higher, as the Table shows. And as of Friday, there were four New Brunswickers in hospital as a result of COVID, none in Nova Scotia.<\/p>\n
Change in cumulative cases by province<\/strong><\/p>\n Source:Health-infobase<\/strong><\/p>\n Making the recent contrast between the two provinces even more significant is how it differs from the situation existing during most of the pandemic. As shown in column one of the table, since the start of the pandemic to the end of last month, Nova Scotia had more than twice as many cases as New Brunswick. Lifting restrictions has shattered that pattern.<\/p>\n New Brunswick\u2019s steadily rising case numbers became more worrisome last Thursday when public health announced 14 confirmed cases of community transmission, something Nova Scotia has so far been spared during its upturn in case numbers. New Brunswick\u2019s rising numbers, particularly the 14 cases where the source of infection is unknown, prompted the province\u2019s deputy chief medical officer to urge mask wearing in indoor public spaces.<\/p>\n However, there is no immediate plan to re-impose mask wearing and other restrictions, despite the fact that New Brunswick\u2019s vaccination numbers are trailing Nova Scotia\u2019s and have actually slowed down relative to Nova Scotia since the decision was made to \u201cgo Green.\u201d<\/p>\n There is an apples-and-oranges element to comparing vaccination numbers. Nova Scotia is basing its plan on percentage of the entire population, while New Brunswick tends to use eligible population (i.e. 12 and over) as a denominator.<\/p>\n\n\n
\n Province<\/strong><\/td>\n July 30<\/strong><\/td>\n Aug. 27<\/strong><\/td>\n Increase<\/strong><\/td>\n Inc. per million<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n New Brunswick<\/td>\n 2,365<\/td>\n 2,721<\/td>\n 356<\/td>\n 452<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n Nova Scotia<\/td>\n 5,887<\/td>\n 5,999<\/td>\n 112<\/td>\n 113<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n