{"id":2697,"date":"2021-08-17T20:53:41","date_gmt":"2021-08-17T20:53:41","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.formac.ca\/starrspoint\/?p=2697"},"modified":"2021-08-17T20:53:41","modified_gmt":"2021-08-17T20:53:41","slug":"the-pandemic-election-campaign-some-baseline-numbers","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.formac.ca\/starrspoint\/2021\/08\/17\/the-pandemic-election-campaign-some-baseline-numbers\/","title":{"rendered":"The pandemic election campaign: some baseline numbers"},"content":{"rendered":"

As Canada heads into a federal election campaign under a pandemic cloud, COVID-19 statistics will be watched as closely as public opinion poll numbers and the dollar signs on election promises. What follows are some baseline numbers to assist in keeping tabs on what\u2019s being billed as the first pandemic federal election campaign in our history.<\/p>\n

Experts say that Canada has entered a fourth wave of the pandemic. Active case numbers have been on the rise over the last three weeks, but at just over 17,000 they are a long way from matching those reached in the third wave. The third wave peaked around April 20 at 88,000 cases before dropping to the 4,500 range three months later. However, since July 25 cases have taken off, as Table 1 shows.<\/p>\n

Table 1: Change in active cases selected dates<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
<\/td>\nJuly 25<\/strong><\/td>\nAug.8<\/strong><\/td>\nAug.15<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Canada<\/td>\n4,637<\/td>\n10,307<\/td>\n17,025<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
B.C.<\/td>\n\u00a0\u00a0 612<\/td>\n2,440<\/td>\n4,336<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Alta.<\/td>\n\u00a0\u00a0 799<\/td>\n2,719<\/td>\n4,438<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Sask.<\/td>\n\u00a0\u00a0 336<\/td>\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 656<\/td>\n1,043<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Man.<\/td>\n\u00a0\u00a0 555<\/td>\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 538<\/td>\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 586<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Ont.<\/td>\n1,450<\/td>\n2,242<\/td>\n3,667<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Que.<\/td>\n\u00a0\u00a0 752<\/td>\n1,558<\/td>\n2,775<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
N.B.<\/td>\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 7<\/td>\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 76<\/td>\n\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a085<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
N.S.<\/td>\n\u00a0\u00a0 12<\/td>\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 13<\/td>\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 26<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
P.E.I<\/td>\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0<\/td>\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 4<\/td>\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 6<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
N.L.<\/td>\n\u00a0\u00a0 39<\/td>\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 14<\/td>\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 14<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Terr.<\/td>\n\u00a0\u00a0 75<\/td>\n\u00a0\u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0\u00a047<\/td>\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 45<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Source: Health Infobase<\/strong><\/p>\n

Although the increase in cases last week affected most provinces, British Columbia and Alberta continued to be hardest hit. The two provinces account for only 25 percent of Canada\u2019s population, but had over half of the reported cases as of Sunday. Doubling\u00a0in Nova Scotia’s modest case numbers shown in the table may be a harbinger of history repeating. During the third wave Nova Scotia\u2019s peak was several weeks behind the national trend, peaking at 227 cases on May 7. Hopefully, the jump in cases last week will turn out to be a blip, not a replay of the spring.<\/p>\n

Deaths down, hospitalizations flat<\/strong><\/p>\n

As expected, vaccinations have reduced the number of deaths from\u00a0COVID-19 – a downward trend that has not been affected by the rise in cases. So far in August reported deaths in Canada are averaging 50 per week, down from a weekly average of 150 in June.<\/p>\n

Hospitalizations are another indicator of how the pandemic is progressing. The most recent data show hospitalizations across the country totalled 364 on August 9, up slightly from July 25. The number of patients in intensive care and on mechanical ventilators was down from July.<\/p>\n

Table 2: Hospitalizations, selected dates<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
<\/td>\nJuly 25<\/strong><\/td>\nAug. 2<\/strong><\/td>\nAug. 9<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
In hospital<\/td>\n337<\/td>\n319<\/td>\n364<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
In ICU<\/td>\n191<\/td>\n168<\/td>\n177<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Vented<\/td>\n116<\/td>\n109<\/td>\n95<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Source: Health Infobase<\/strong><\/p>\n

Although case rates in Canada have been climbing for the last three weeks, we compare well with other rich G-7 countries. During the third wave in April and May our vaccination rates were relatively low and our daily case rates were among the highest in the G-7. Both indicators have improved a lot since then.<\/p>\n

On August 16 according to the New York Times<\/em> vaccination tracker<\/strong> <\/a> 64 per cent of Canadians had received two doses of vaccine, the highest percentage in the G-7 and among the top dozen countries in the world.<\/p>\n

Average daily case rates for the week of August 8-15, although up significantly from four weeks earlier, remained the lowest in the G-7. Table 1 shows average daily case rates per million population for last week, compared with mid-May and mid-July for G-7 countries.<\/p>\n

Table 3: Daily new case average per million<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
<\/td>\nMay 16-23<\/strong><\/td>\nJuly 11-18<\/strong><\/td>\nAug. 8-15<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Canada<\/td>\n115.1<\/td>\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 9.9<\/td>\n49.6<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
U.S.<\/td>\n78.1<\/td>\n100.1<\/td>\n332.9<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
U.K.<\/td>\n37.1<\/td>\n656.1<\/td>\n416.0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
France<\/td>\n191.6<\/td>\n120.3<\/td>\n362.3<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Italy<\/td>\n78.2<\/td>\n38.3<\/td>\n104.7<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Germany<\/td>\n87.0<\/td>\n14.5<\/td>\n51.7<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Japan<\/td>\n41.8<\/td>\n22.4<\/td>\n124.5<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Source: Worldometer<\/strong><\/p>\n

As Table 3 shows, Canada had the second highest daily case rate in mid-May and the lowest in July. Despite the sharp increase from 9.9 to 49.6 daily cases per million from a month ago, Canada continued to have the lowest daily rate of new cases last week, far below the numbers for the United Kingdom, the U.S. and France. However, the five-fold increase from 9.9 daily cases per million in July to 49.6 last week is the sharpest in the G-7, making this metric worth watching as the campaign proceeds.<\/p>\n

-30-<\/p>\n

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 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

As Canada heads into a federal election campaign under a pandemic cloud, COVID-19 statistics will be watched as closely as public opinion poll numbers and the dollar signs on election promises. What follows are some baseline numbers to assist in keeping tabs on what\u2019s being billed as the first pandemic federal election campaign in our […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1011,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[13],"tags":[169],"class_list":["post-2697","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-federal-politics","tag-covid-19","et-has-post-format-content","et_post_format-et-post-format-standard"],"post_mailing_queue_ids":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.formac.ca\/starrspoint\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2697","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.formac.ca\/starrspoint\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.formac.ca\/starrspoint\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.formac.ca\/starrspoint\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.formac.ca\/starrspoint\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2697"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/www.formac.ca\/starrspoint\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2697\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2704,"href":"https:\/\/www.formac.ca\/starrspoint\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2697\/revisions\/2704"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.formac.ca\/starrspoint\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1011"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.formac.ca\/starrspoint\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2697"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.formac.ca\/starrspoint\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2697"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.formac.ca\/starrspoint\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2697"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}