{"id":2598,"date":"2021-04-04T20:01:47","date_gmt":"2021-04-04T20:01:47","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.formac.ca\/starrspoint\/?p=2598"},"modified":"2021-04-04T20:01:47","modified_gmt":"2021-04-04T20:01:47","slug":"the-old-normal-good-news-and-bad-on-poverty-and-incomes","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.formac.ca\/starrspoint\/2021\/04\/04\/the-old-normal-good-news-and-bad-on-poverty-and-incomes\/","title":{"rendered":"The old normal: Good news and bad on poverty and incomes"},"content":{"rendered":"

Economic fallout from the pandemic may change things, but the latest Statistics Canada data on income and poverty levels in Nova Scotia run according to form, with one major exception. The Canadian Income Survey (CIS) for 2019 shows a further drop in the province\u2019s child poverty rate – a steep one.<\/p>\n

As described here<\/a><\/strong>, child poverty became a political embarrassment for the McNeil Liberals two years ago when the CIS revealed that while child poverty rates across the country were falling, they went up in Nova Scotia in 2017. The stigma eased a bit last year when the CIS reported a significant drop, although Nova Scotia still had the highest rates in the country in 2018. But no more.<\/p>\n

According to survey findings released last month, Nova Scotia had only the sixth highest rate of child poverty in 2019, better than the three other Atlantic Provinces, Ontario and Saskatchewan. At 11.7 per cent the Nova Scotia rate was higher than the national average of 9.7 per cent. But the drop from 19.4 per cent two years ago is eye-catching, and the number of Nova Scotians under 18 living in poverty declined to 19,000 from 31,000 in 2017.[1]<\/a><\/p>\n

If we haven\u2019t already, we are soon likely to hear some version of this good news story as election time draws nearer. The McNeil-Rankin Liberals have rightly been criticized over their poor record on poverty, so the impressive looking drop in child poverty reduction is just what the spin doctor ordered. And the Trudeau Liberals can cite declining national numbers to show how well their anti-poverty strategy – primarily through enriched child benefits – is working since its introduction in 2016. Table 1 shows rates and numbers for Nova Scotia and Canada as a whole.<\/p>\n

Table 1:Change in child poverty rates and numbers (Market Basket Measure)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
<\/td>\n2015<\/strong><\/td>\n2016<\/strong><\/td>\n2017<\/strong><\/td>\n2018<\/strong><\/td>\n2019<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Canada rate<\/td>\n16.4%<\/td>\n14.0%<\/td>\n11.6%<\/td>\n10.8%<\/td>\n9.7%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Canada #,000<\/td>\n1,115<\/td>\n958<\/td>\n803<\/td>\n748<\/td>\n680<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
NS rate<\/td>\n20.7%<\/td>\n19.1%<\/td>\n19.4%<\/td>\n14.8%<\/td>\n11.7%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
NS #,000<\/td>\n33<\/td>\n30<\/td>\n31<\/td>\n24<\/td>\n19<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Source: Table 11-10-0135-01<\/strong><\/p>\n

The numbers in Table 1 look quite encouraging. Hundreds of thousands of Canadian children – 435,000 from 2015 to 2019 including 14,000 Nova Scotian kids – lifted out of poverty. But beware.<\/p>\n

As discussed here<\/a> <\/strong>and here<\/a><\/strong> Stats Canada makes no claims to infallibility for the income and poverty numbers in the CIS, especially at the provincial level. While the data quality of the national numbers is rated \u201cvery good,\u201d because of sample size, the provincial child poverty numbers for 2019 are rated E \u201cuse with caution.\u201d<\/p>\n

A more reliable set of income data comes from the T1 Family File (T1FF), compiled from tax returns, but the 2019 edition is not out until this summer. The T1FF uses different metrics – the Census Family Low Income Measure After Tax (CFLIM-AT) – producing poverty rates considerably higher than those reported through the Canada Income Survey. The latest Child and Family Poverty Report prepared by the Nova Scotia office of the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives<\/a><\/strong> (CCPA) found a slight increase in child poverty in Nova Scotia between 2017 and 2018 rather than the 4.6 percentage point drop \u2013 from 19.4 to 14.8 per cent – shown in Table 1. And rather than the 24,000 children in poverty in 2018, the CCPA reported 41,370.[2]<\/a><\/p>\n

Contrary indicators<\/strong><\/p>\n

Another reason to \u201cuse with caution\u201d the CIS data on child poverty is that the findings are inconsistent with other parts of the survey showing a continuation of high rates of poverty and low levels of income for the population at large. Nova Scotia\u2019s overall poverty rate of 12.1 per cent was the second highest in Canada in 2019, an improvement following three straight years of having the country\u2019s highest rate. The Nova Scotia rate, consistent with the national trend, has been going down since 2015. However, a couple of other of Nova Scotia\u2019s poverty indicators move in the wrong direction.<\/p>\n